Toronto Real Estate August 2026: Average Price Falls Below $1 Million Again
The Average Price Dropped Below a Million
In August 2026, the average price at which properties were sold in the City of Toronto was $979,000; it is the second instance this year of the 416 falling below one million, the first having occurred in January.
The city figure has remained above $1 million for so long that it is surprising to see it fall below, even if nothing dramatic is actually going on underneath. And in August, there isn’t much happening since it is the slowest month of the year, half of our team were on holiday, buyers are distracted as they enjoy their summer and sales volumes therefore decrease.
The key indicators are becoming more restrictive; for example, in the number of new listings and the length of inventory. Prices have remained stable of the past year within a narrow range rather than dropping sharply. Moreover, the condo market is faring much better than many in the mainstream media would have people believe. Here’s a breakdown of the situation.
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The Headline Number
In August 2026, the average price for all kinds of homes in the City of Toronto was $979,000, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3 percent. The overall average for the Greater Toronto Area was $993,000, a 2.7 percent drop, indicating that the suburbs had a higher average than the central area that month.
As Kori Marin, co-founder and creative director of Fox Marin, stated, it was “rather a bit like a nothing burger month”. The year-on-year figures had hardly changed at all. Sales of homes in the city dropped by 0.7 percent, which was essentially flat. New listings decreased by 7.4 percent. Active listings fell by 9.5 percent across all types of property, including condos being included.
The combination is important; if sales remain level while both the number of new listings and the number of active listings fall, then supply is coming up against steady demand. This is typically what happens before prices level out and may therefore be a sign that a bottom has been reached.
What is occurring now is a decline in sales and the number of active listings, together with a tightening of inventory over the past eight months; if this trend continues, a bottom in the market might appear this fall. – Ralph Fox, Broker of Record, Fox Marin
What Ralph is continually pointing out is that the average price shows you where the market has been, while inventory figures show you where it is going. If you only look at the average price, you will always be looking in the past and therefore it is important to keep an eye on leading indicators.
Why the 416 Gets Its Own Chart
Most of the coverage shows the GTA as a single figure since that is the figure that TRREB publishes and that the media use. However, as we are operating in central and downtown Toronto, the 416 area behaves as if it were its own market, so it makes no sense to group it with Milton and Markham.
In August 2026, several points were noticeable. Detached house sales had increased by 3.6 percent on a year-on-year basis, and the average price for detached houses was about the same as it had been last August. It is worth noting that the most expensive property type in the city was the one that remained stable during the slowest month. Sales of semi-detached houses rose by 1.3 percent, those of townhouses fell by 11 percent, and the sales and prices for condo apartments were essentially unchanged.
Inventory levels, a figure we refer to repeatedly, were 4.6 months in the city, down 2.1 percent from the previous year. This is characteristic of a balanced market. The ratio of sales to new listings (SNLR) increased to 38.3 percent, up 11 percent. When that figure exceeds 40 percent, it signals a shift of the market from buyer’s territory towards a balanced market, so we are nearing that point.
If you only looked at real estate through mainstream and social media you’d conclude that Toronto condos had collapsed. They haven’t.
Condo prices in the 416 area fell by only 2.1 per cent on a year-on-year basis. That’s all. For an asset class which everyone continues to claim is dead, it is quite a surprise to see prices remaining so stable, something that Kori has been forecasting for most of the year. However the average figure masks a division that buyers should understand.
It’s among the smaller units that price cuts are actually taking place at the moment in the market,” said Ralph Fox, Broker of Record with Fox Marin.
The average price for condos is being supported by larger units bought by end users. Almost all of the downward pressure comes from the smaller types of condos, namely junior one-bedroom units, one-bedroom units, and studios. In this kind of market situation, investors have essentially vanished. As a results, many of the smaller units remain unsold and are having a negative effect on overall sentiment, while the transactions that do close are mostly those involving larger units that are occupied by owners.
Another drawback of buying condos isn’t the price. As Kori mentioned, buyers now do the full calculation involving the mortgage, property taxes and maintenance fees. Many buildings have been badly managed since the pandemic, a great deal of wear and tear has accumulated, and maintenance fees have seldom decreased. For a small unit, a high monthly maintenance fee can therefore be a big obstacle for first-time buyers.
Fox notes that every property you’ll ever own costs money to maintain, whether it’s a condo fee or a new roof. If you own a low-rise home and/or a flooded basement, that can add up. The real question isn’t whether you pay condo fees; it’s whether the building is well run. A well-managed older building with a deep reserve fund and a board with a track record can be better value than a brand-new building.
That’s why the condo status certificate, the audited financial snapshot your lawyer reviews during your conditional period, is one of the most important documents in the deal. If you’re not sure ownership makes sense yet, Are You Actually Ready to Buy a Home in Toronto? A First-Time Buyer Mindset is a good gut check before you start touring.
Kori’s rule is to aim for monthly maintenance fees of about $1 per square foot or less, and then consider exactly what is included – such as utilities, internet, and amenities. For a 400-square-foot unit, a $600 fee generally doesn’t work out financially.
Location Still Protects You
This month’s chart compares the 416 with the 905. In three of the four categories – detached houses, semis, and condos – prices in the city dropped less than those in the suburbs.
Townhouses were the only type that performed better in areas outside the city centre, mainly because row housing is much more common in places such as Georgetown, Aurora, and Newmarket than in the downtown area.
Ralph, “location, location, location” is indeed the number-one rule when it comes to real estate investing. During the COVID period, the rule, together with a number of others, was temporarily reversed. People wanted more space and, for a certain period of time, the prices per square foot in the city centre were the same as those in places such as Pickering, with some more remote areas even exceeding those in the central areas.
Now it’s reverting. With return-to-office mandates pulling people back to walkable, central neighbourhoods, the most desirable locations are stabilizing first and clawing back what they lost during the pandemic. That premium of buying in a good location is what protects a property in a downturn and drives its recovery afterward. It’s the theme running through our East-versus-West series, including East vs. West, Part One: A Decade of Toronto’s West End House Prices, Decoded, which tracks how location has shaped over the past decade.
A Different Kind of Seller Is Calling
Interestingly, there doesn’t seem to be a surge of homeowners who want to put their houses on the market at this time. At the moment, the majority of the seller enquiries we receive fall into two groups: those attempting to relist after their property failed to sell through another realtor over 6 to 8 months, and those intending to list in 2027. Based on our experience, although the fall should be a particularly busy period, there are still very few people rushing to put their property on the market.
The sellers who do list now are usually moving because of a real-life event, a death, a divorce, a new baby, a job, not opportunism. We wrote about the pattern in The Real Life Events Behind Toronto Real Estate Decisions, and August’s listing numbers are that thesis showing up in the data.
The relationship between seller and agent has been affected by this change. Nowadays, owners interview three or four agents before making their choice, whereas during the boom years they could take on almost anyone and the property would sell on its own. Both Ralph and Kori were open about the mistake they made when hiring on the wrong criteria.
Hire the right person the first time. Don’t choose someone who might cut you a few thousand dollars on commissions, and don’t select the one who offers you the highest price. – Kori Marin, co-founder of Fox Marin
Thinking about a fall or spring 2027 sale? The biggest decision you’ll make is who represents you and how they set their rates. If you want a straight read on what your property would realistically sell for right now, and whether now or spring is the better window, start with our Seller Intake form. It takes a few minutes and gives us enough to give you a useful answer.
What kind of market are we really in?
In August 2026, the situation was mixed, since the SNLR, at 38.3 percent, and the number of months of inventory, at 4.6, both suggest a state of balance. However, the listing days on the market at 35 and the property days on the market at 46 still favour the buyer. Inventory has been hovering around a five-month median for some time and increased during the summer, which is normal after peaking at 6.5 months in January.
When he looked at the chart, Ralph stated that “it’s not as bad as it appears when you look at this” – that was the main point throughout the month, since the real data kept contradicting the negative attitude.
One structural note for the years ahead mentioned in the discussion: the pre-construction pipeline is expected to largely wind down around Q1 2027 and could stay that way for over a decade; this will have a direct effect on condo market prices as we approach the early 2030s.
What This Means For you
If you’re a buyer, don’t try to predict when the market will reach its lowest point, as Ralph suggested; it’s impossible. If you’re intending to stay in the property for three to five years or longer, you should focus on finding a house that suits your life and your family’s needs. If you are able to find the right house and are willing to negotiate a little, you’ll be in a better position than most buyers have been over most of the past 30 years. What is important isn’t getting the lowest price but rather getting good value; buying at $800 per square foot when it would cost between $1,500 and $1,600 to build new replacement properties (since none are currently coming) is a suitable first move.
First-time buyers with limited means should be looking hard at entry-level condos right now: studios under $500,000, some under $400,000, with as little as 5 percent down. Kori is a big fan of that price point as a way into an up-and-coming neighbourhood. If that’s you, our First-Time Home Buyer Academy was built for this stage, and it helps to know which emerging area s have the most room to grow, which we map out in Part Two: East versus West – The Ontario Line, Emerging Areas, and the Future of Toronto’s East End.
If you’re a seller, start with the questions we ask first: where are you going, why are you selling, and what’s the plan for the capital? If you’re selling into a soft market, the reasons need to be strategic. More often than not, the honest advice is to wait unless your timeline really demands moving now. When you do sell, price to the last 90 days of comparable sales, not last year and not your neighbour’s sale from three years ago, and be conservative. There are no sexy numbers this year. Whatever the price point, from a $400,000 studio to a Forest Hill house, go all in on prep: vacant, staged, and properly marketed. For what actually ends up in your pocket, What Toronto Home Sellers Actually Net After Selling is worth reading before you set your expectations.
If you’re watching from the sidelines, track the leading indicators, new listings, active listings, and months of inventory, rather than focusing on the headline price. Those tell you where the market is heading. And keep an eye on the trade situation with the U.S., as the market dislikes uncertainty.
Frequently Asked Questions
The City of Toronto’s average was $979,000, down 1.3 percent year over year. It’s best read as seasonal softness in the slowest month of the year, not a collapse. It’s only the second sub-million print of 2026, after January, and prices have been moving within a narrow band rather than trending sharply down.
It depends on your situation, but this is a rare window where buyers can still negotiate and do proper due diligence, which wasn’t the case for most of the last 30 years. Our advice is to concentrate on long-term value rather than timing the exact bottom, and to move when a property genuinely fits your life and the numbers work.
The situation is a bit more complicated than the headlines indicate. In August, condo prices in the 416 area had dropped by only 2.1 percent year over year. The decline is mainly seen in smaller units, such as studios and junior one-bedroom apartments, where investors demand has disappeared, whereas larger units occupied by owners are maintaining their value. The quality of the building, the condition of the reserve fund, and the level of maintenance fees are all important in determining whether a particular condo is a good purchase.
As a general guide, aim for fees of $1.00 or less per square foot and consider the various services included. Services such as utilities, internet, amenities you will be using, and the concierge service may warrant a higher fee. It is important to have your lawyer review the condo status certificate to assess the building’s financial position before making a decision.
The City of Toronto (416) and the surrounding suburbs (905) show different behaviour. In august 2026, prices in the city declined by less than in the suburbs for detached homes, semis, and condos, as return-to-office mandates are bringing buyers back to central, walkable neighbourhoods.
To get an idea of where the market is going, you should look at the leading indicators: the number of new listings, the number of active listings, and the amount of inventory, not at the average price, since the average price is a lagging figure and only shows you where the market has already been. If sales remain steady but inventory decreases, this is an early indication of stabilization.
The Fox Marin Perspective
If you take the summer slowdown and the negative tone of the headlines into account, August 2026 was a dull month. In this market, dull is, in fact, better news than bad news. Sales remained level, inventory decreased, prices stayed about the same, and the condominiums performed better than their standing. It is dramatic to say that the average price had dropped below $1 million, but what was really going on was much calmer than that figure indicates.
It doesn’t mean that we’ve reached the bottom. It will be the September-through-November drop that will show us more about what kind of year 2026 was. Nevertheless, the leading indicators are pointing in the right direction, and the same recommendation remains valid: think in the long term, concentrate on value rather than price, and deal with people who actually know the neighbourhood where you are buying or selling.
Whether you’re weighing an entry-level condo, a sale you’d rather not rush, or just trying to cut through the noise, we’d rather have a straight conversation than sell you on anything. Contact us (We’re Nice!) and let’s figure out what makes sense for you.
Fox Marin is recognized as one of Toronto’s most trusted real estate teams, with 550+ five-star Google reviews, more than 1,000 successful transactions, and over $700 million in sales volume. (*Source: RE Stats Inc. / Loft47, Jan. 1, 2018 – Aug. 31, 2026)
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This article was written by Ralph Fox, Broker of Record and Managing Partner here at Fox Marin Associates. Ralph is a Torontonian native who recognized from an early age that the most successful people in life apply long-term thinking to their investments, relationships, and life goals. It’s this philosophy, along with his lifelong entrepreneurial drive and exceptional business instincts, that help to establish Ralph as a top agent in the real estate market in downtown Toronto.
Ralph Fox & Kori Marin
Kori and Ralph's love affair with Toronto Real Estate have spanned several decades! It is incredible to see how far their mad crazy passion for design, architecture and innovation has taken them, which is only the beginning of their bigger vision and relentless goal-setting! Kori and Ralph have created this forum for their readers to explore the good, the bad, and the sometimes ugly real estate. An honest perspective about the ins & outs of the business - one in which they live, work and experience first hand every day. Nothing is more interesting than the "real" in real estate!
