Has The Toronto Bubble Finally, Popped?
There is a tremendous amount of investor uncertainty, from creeping inflation to rising interest rates; the war in Ukraine leaves many scratching their heads on the sidelines, wondering how this will impact the Toronto Real Estate Market. The fact of the matter is there will always be reasons not to invest in the Toronto Real Estate Market during times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Let’s look at this has played out;
2021 – Supply Chains Falter, Inflation, Omicron variant
2020 – Stock market crash “COVID-19 to Plunge Global Economy into Worst Recession since World War II” World Bank
2019 – Russia intervenes in Syria lead to the displacement of more than 1,000,000, The U.S. House Impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump, HK/China protests
2018 – “Markets suffer worst year since global financial crisis”- Reuters
2017 – Wynn Government Housing Act, The Russia investigation, The U.N. unanimously approves fresh sanctions on North Korea
2016 – Oil prices had risen more than 50%. Russia Interferes in the U.S. Presidential Election, Donald Trump Elected, 2016: Brexit Vote
2015 – A million migrants entered Europe. ISIS terrorist strike on three continents, China Stock Market Crash, Greek Debt crisis
2014 – Russia Annexes Crimea and Threatens the Rest of Ukraine, ISIS Declares an Islamic Caliphate, Ebola strikes West Africa
2013 – The Snowden Leaks, The Boston Marathon Bombing, the 2013 United States debt-ceiling crisis
2012 – The U.S. economy has slipped into a growth recession, North Korea fires its first rocket, Europe’s Sovereign Debt Crisis
2011 – Bin Laden Killed, Gadhafi Killed, Black Monday 2011 in the U.S. and global stock markets crashed
Zoom out even further historically, and you will see even more reasons not to invest in Toronto Real-estate. From the tech meltdown of 2000, 9/11, SARS and the Great Recession of 2008. A recent report released by Remax as its Quarter Century report notes that sales prices of homes have soared 450% since 1996 and that in that time, over two million GTA homes have sold, equating to a dollar volume of $1.1 trillion.
The moral of the story is not to get caught up in the short-term drama of the day and think long-term. With shelter being number two on Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, it should come as no surprise that one of the historical best hedges against inflation is residential real estate. This principle is magnified in a market like Toronto, which is chronically undersupplied (with a low supply forecasted for years to come).
A report published by the Ontario Government, chaired by Jake Lawrence, CEO of Scotia bank Housing Affordability Task Force, noted Ontario should aim to build 1.5 million new homes over the next decade to keep up with current immigration and demand. Sure Jake, ever try getting a drywaller to show up at your house? Simply stated, this is not physically or economically possible.
Once you step back from all the noise and drama perpetuated in the mass media, one will come to the ultimate conclusion this current period of economic and geopolitical uncertainty shall too pass. The Toronto Real Estate market, given its strong fundamentals, will continue and remain to be one of the strongest performers in terms of capital preservation and appreciation during uncertain times.
At Fox Marin, we take the time to understand what your perfect home is. And then, we help you get there. Early in the buying process, we host a Buyer Intake Session, where we address a number of important considerations. We want to get you thinking about the home buying process in a more structured and holistic way. Fox Marin takes the time to understand your individual level of experience with home buying and ownership.
In fact, the first thing we do is set up an introductory meeting to review your wish list, discuss market fundamentals and review the acquisition process so you’re set up for success from day one. It’s important to us that we do a lot of the heavy-lifting upfront so you’re empowered with knowledge and information from the get-go! For planning purposes, your onboarding session will be approximately 90 minutes in length and is definitely the best way to kick-off your search efforts!
Knowing that buying with Fox Marin means we are investing time and energy in this critical first step. We believe that the more knowledgeable a homebuyer is, the more comfortable, stress-free (and, fun) the home buying process will be!
If you have questions, comments or ideas – feel free to pass them along. We would love to hear from you!
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This article was written by Ralph Fox, Broker of Record and Managing Partner here at Fox Marin Associates. Ralph is a Torontonian native who recognized from an early age that the most successful people in life apply long-term thinking to their investments, relationships, and life goals. It’s this philosophy, along with his lifelong entrepreneurial drive and exceptional business instincts, that help to establish Ralph as a top agent in the real estate market in downtown Toronto.