Has The Toronto Bubble Finally, Popped?
As Canada approaches the federal election on April 28, 2025, housing affordability has emerged as one of the most pressing—and divisive—issues facing Canadians. Rising prices, stagnant incomes, and supply bottlenecks across the country, particularly in large urban centers like Toronto and Vancouver, have made housing feel entirely out of reach for many, especially younger generations.
While this topic has historically dominated national conversation, it has recently been overshadowed by international tensions, U.S. politics, and global economic uncertainty. However, the upcoming election provides an opportunity to refocus on what’s happening at home—literally and figuratively.
The goal of this guide is to walk you through the facts, data, and housing platforms of the three major federal parties: the Conservatives, Liberals, and NDP. The analysis is presented in a clear and objective way, blending key statistics and real-time insights from within the housing market.
To truly grasp what each party is proposing, it’s important to understand how dire the housing situation has become in Canada. Below are four key data visuals that form the foundation of the affordability crisis.
National Average Home Price (2014-2024)
Home prices in Canada have risen dramatically over the past decade. In many cities, values have doubled or tripled. This chart, sourced from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), shows how homeownership has become increasingly out of reach—especially for first-time buyers in urban centers.
National Rental Price Increases
Over the same 10-year span, rental prices have also surged. While the national average shows steep increases, urban centers like Toronto and Vancouver are often double or triple the national baseline. For many Canadians, rent now eats up more than half of their monthly income.
Income vs. Housing Costs
This Statistics Canada chart shows a troubling trend. Since 2012, median after-tax income has barely increased, while housing costs have soared. Government subsidies during COVID-19 are visible as a brief spike, but the long-term income trajectory is stagnant.
Ownership Costs as a % of Household Income (RBC)
According to RBC Economics, the average Canadian household spends 58.4% of its income on homeownership costs. In Vancouver, that number jumps to 96.7%. Toronto households average 75%, while cities like Calgary (42.2%) and Edmonton (33.6%) are relatively more affordable.
Long-Term Affordability Trends
This chart—sourced from RBC, Stats Canada, and the Bank of Canada—shows ownership costs as a percentage of household income in Canada from 1999 to the present across all housing categories. It clearly illustrates how affordability has steadily declined over time.
The most concerning detail? We are currently sitting near historical highs for ownership costs. While affordability is forecasted to improve slightly by 2025 and 2026, that projection is still speculative and heavily dependent on interest rate trends, construction costs, and immigration policy.
What’s also fascinating about this slide is the comparison to the late ’80s and early ’90s, when affordability dipped due to sky-high interest rates. It’s a helpful reminder that housing cycles do exist—and that periods of extreme unaffordability are not always permanent.
This chart is a sobering but important reminder that the housing affordability crisis is not just a temporary blip—it has been decades in the making and demands long-term structural solutions.
The Liberals’ housing strategy leans heavily on federal funding, demand-side programs, and multi-government partnerships. Several initiatives from their 2024 budget are already in motion.
Key Initiatives Include:
GST Cut for First-Time Buyers
Removes 5% GST on newly built homes under $1 million. Applies only to first-time buyers. Estimated savings of up to $50,000.
RRSP Home Buyer Plan & Mortgage Limits
Raises RRSP withdrawal limits from $35,000 to $60,000. Increases the uninsured mortgage ceiling from $1 million to $1.5 million to reflect current market prices.
Housing Accelerator Fund (HAF)
A $4.4 billion fund aimed at speeding up zoning and permit approvals. In Year 1, Toronto only hit 37.5% of its target—highlighting implementation issues.
Canada Builds Program
A 2024 initiative partnering with provinces to fast-track rental housing construction.
Public Lands for Homes
Uses federally owned land to build more housing. Similar to the Conservative platform.
Housing Design Catalog
Standardized designs for fourplexes, sixplexes, laneway suites, and more. Intended to simplify and speed up low-rise construction.
Home Buyers’ Bill of Rights
Still in development. It would ban blind bidding, require transparency on pricing history, and mandate inspections. Critics argue that these reforms are already partially in place in many provinces.
Canadian Renters’ Bill of Rights
Also under development. Includes standard leases, pricing transparency, and eviction protections. Effectiveness may be limited given provincial jurisdiction.
Short-Term Rental Crackdown
$50 million fund enacted to crack down on illegal Airbnbs. Aims to return short-term rental units to long-term rental supply and protect community standards in condo buildings.
Homelessness & Affordability Investments
Enacted in the 2024 budget:
The NDP proposes a bold, government-led housing strategy centered on affordability, non-profit partnerships, and controlling speculation.
Key Initiatives Include:
Federal Land for Public Housing
Promises to allocate 100% of suitable federal land for 100,000 rent-controlled homes by 2035. A response to historic underbuilding on public land.
Criticism of Past Inaction
Singh ighlights that only 85 public housing units per year have been built on public land in the last 30 years. Accuses Liberal and Conservative governments of slow progress.
Opposition to Corporate Ownership
Opposes large corporations buying up housing stock. Supports institutional capital only in the context of building new supply.
Community Housing Bank
A proposed financial institution to support co-ops, Indigenous developers, and non-profits in building long-term affordable housing.
Speeding Up Permits
Like the other parties, the NDP calls for faster approvals and reduced bureaucracy at the municipal level.
Skilled Trades Training
Would invest in training 100,000 workers, including immigrants and displaced workers, for careers in construction to address labour shortages.
As we approach the 2025 federal election, it’s clear that housing affordability is not just a political talking point—it’s a defining issue of our time. With ownership costs nearing historic highs, wages stagnant, and rental prices soaring, the stakes for Canadian households have never been greater.
Each major party—Conservative, Liberal, and NDP—has proposed a different path forward. From cutting red tape and offering tax incentives to funding public sector builds and renter protections, the solutions vary widely. But the common thread across all platforms is an acknowledgment that the status quo is no longer sustainable.
This is more than a policy debate. It’s about how we want to shape the future of Canadian cities, communities, and generational opportunity. For young Canadians, in particular, the dream of owning a home—or even finding affordable, stable rental housing—has shifted from a milestone to a long shot. And that’s a national issue that demands urgent, informed action.
No single platform offers a perfect fix. But this election is a chance to ask better questions, demand clearer commitments, and vote with a deeper understanding of how each proposal impacts the real-world housing landscape.
So, as April 28 approaches, take the time to reflect, research, and, most importantly, vote. Housing affordability isn’t just a line item on a campaign website. It’s the foundation of a secure, stable, and equitable future for all Canadians. Let’s treat it with the seriousness it deserves.
Contact Fox Marin, Toronto’s downtown luxury real estate brokerage, today to learn more about the advantages of hiring a quality team!
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Kori Marin is a Toronto Broker & Managing Partner at Fox Marin Associates. For high-energy real estate aficionado Kori Marin, a well-lived life is achieved by maintaining an “all-in” attitude that realizes every last ounce of one’s full potential. This mindset has driven successful results in every aspect of her life – from her corporate sales and account management experience to her international travels to her years of fitness training and leadership – and is the hallmark of the exceptional work that she does on behalf of her clients in the residential real estate sector in downtown Toronto.