Has The Toronto Bubble Finally, Popped?
If you’re thinking about selling in Toronto, you’ve likely asked the same question many homeowners are asking right now: Should we list in the spring, or wait for the fall?
It’s a fair question. The Toronto Real Estate market has changed, and timing matters more today than it did in the past. That is exactly why Fox Marin recently analyzed TRREB data from 2024 and 2025 to take a clear, data-driven look at seasonal listing patterns.
The conclusion is straightforward: Spring tends to offer better statistical odds. However, strategy, preparation, and adaptability matter more than the season alone.
Below is a breakdown of the numbers, how sellers should interpret them, and why the off-season can sometimes present unique opportunities:
In this conversation, Fox Marin focused specifically on 2024 and 2025 because the market prior to 2024 operated under very different conditions. Interest rates were lower, buyer urgency was higher, and fear of missing out drove activity. In that environment, listings could generate strong results almost regardless of timing.
The most recent two years reflect today’s reality: slower absorption, nervous buyer sentiment, more inventory, and a more selective buyer pool. Selling in 2026 requires thoughtful positioning and disciplined execution now more than ever.
Looking at the total sales volume across 2024 & 2025, a consistent seasonal pattern emerged:
In 2024, April and May led the year, with October ranking third. In 2025, the spring peak shifted slightly later to May and June, with October again standing out as the strongest fall month.
For sellers, transaction volume matters. When more transactions are at their peak, in a buyer’s market, a properly priced and professionally marketed property has a strong chance of selling.
It is also important to recognize the broader context. Both 2024 and 2025 were historically weak years for total sales volume, with 2025 being the slowest year since the early 2000s. When liquidity is limited, choosing the most active window becomes paramount.
Across both years, average prices were strongest in April, May, and June.
This does not mean every seller automatically achieves a premium simply by listing in May. What it signifies is that the broader market conditions in spring tend to support stronger pricing due to higher buyer engagement and improved sentiment.
Spring often creates the most supportive environment for sellers, but as we have seen over the last few years, there are no guarantees in the market.
Average days on market were also lowest during the spring months in both 2024 and 2025.
Shorter days on market typically correlate with better outcomes for sellers as a market’s velocity, momentum and buyer psychology will greatly impact a listing’s success.
STRONGER BUYER ACTIVITY AND CONFIDENCE
Longer days and improved wether tend to bring renewed energy to the market.
BETTER PRESENTATION AND CURB APPEAL
Properties simply show better when natural light is stronger and outdoor spaces are usable.
LARGER BUYER POOLS
More buyers competing can translate into stronger pricing and cleaner offers.
FAMILY-DRIVEN TIMELINES
Many family buyers aim to move before September so their children can start the school year settled in. This creates predictable spring demand in family-oriented neighbourhoods.
Spring is not without trade-offs.
MORE COMPETITION
You may end up competing with multiple similar properties.
MORE SELECTIVE BUYERS
When inventory levels increase buyers can become more selective and entitled.
HOLIDAY TIMING MATTERS
For listing agents the spring is a minefield for holidays, March break, long weekends, and religious holidays can reduce traffic and offer participation. Launch timing requires careful planning.
While the data clearly favours listing in the spring, off-season listings can also perform very well in a low inventory envirnoment.
In winter months, when fewer properties are available, a well-prepared listing can become the only choice for motivated buyers at the start of the year. In certain situations, being the standout amongst stale or thin inventory can be more advantageous than being one of many in a crowd.
The TRREB data from 2024 and 2025 clearly shows that spring typically delivers higher sales volume, stronger average prices, and shorter days on market than fall. For those considering a fall launch, October has consistently been the most reliable month.
That said, timing alone does not determine success. In today’s Toronto real estate market, preparation, a realistic pricing strategy, property presentation, and adaptability are what ultimately drive strong results.
While spring may statistically offer the most supportive environment, there are situations where listing at other times makes more sense based on the property, the neighbourhood, or a seller’s personal timeline. It is impossible to perfectly time the market, but it is entirely possible to plan intelligently.
A successful listing is rarely about luck. It is about strategy. In a buyers market in uncertain times thoughtful guidance and a data-driven approach matter more than ever.
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Fox Marin has earned its reputation as Toronto’s premier downtown luxury real estate team, backed by over *$580 million in sales, more than 1,000 successful transactions, and over 500+ glowing 5-star Google Reviews. Discover the advantage of working with a proven team with a track record for winning results.
(*Source: Jan. 1, 2018 – Sept 1, 2025, RE Stats Inc. & Exclusive)
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This article was written by Ralph Fox, Broker of Record and Managing Partner here at Fox Marin Associates. Ralph is a Torontonian native who recognized from an early age that the most successful people in life apply long-term thinking to their investments, relationships, and life goals. It’s this philosophy, along with his lifelong entrepreneurial drive and exceptional business instincts, that help to establish Ralph as a top agent in the real estate market in downtown Toronto.