October 2025 Toronto Real Estate: Prices Down, Inventory Up, Buyers in Control

A Clear, Data-Rich, Fox Marin Look At What Really Happened This Fall

A CHILLY MARKET WITH A LOT TO SAY

Some months in Toronto real estate feel rushed and reactive. Others feel slow and contemplative. October 2025 was firmly in the second category. A sluggish fall season, soft buyer sentiment, distracted sellers, and a city trying to find its rhythm again created a market that looked quiet on the surface but carried meaningful signals underneath.

This month’s report digs into the real numbers. We reviewed prices, sales, inventory, consumer psychology, and decade-long trends. We compared month over month, year over year, and peak-to-present performance so you can see where the Toronto market really stands, not where the headlines want you to look.

As always, the goal is clarity. And clarify helps you make smart decisions, even in uncertain times.

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Detached Home Prices (416)

Detached homes led the softening this fall. Prices in October landed at $1,619, which is 9.1 percent lower year over year and roughly $455,000 below the February 2022 peak. That peak-to-present adjustment sits at 22 percent, a meaningful realignment for the city’s highest-priced category.

Still, if you zoom out, the long-term picture remains strong. Detached values are 70 percent higher than in 2014, underscoring the asset class’s resilience over the decade.

This fall’s slower conditions were not about the product itself but about buyer psychology: nervousness around the economy, employment, affordability, and timing. When confidence drops, the most expensive category is usually the first to absorb the shock.

Semi-Detached Home Prices (416)

At the start of 2025, we predicted that semis would be the standout of the year. They checked every box: family-friendly, charming, functional, and relatively accessible compared to detached. But the data had other plans.

Semis are down 6.9 percent year over year and 18.6 percent below peak, with an average sale price of $1,219 in October. This slowdown is directly tied to the bottleneck in the move-up market. Condo owners can’t sell easily. First-time buyers lack confidence. Families who would typically transition from condo to semi are staying put.

Over ten years, semis are still up 79.5 percent, which speaks to their long-term reliability, even if the near-term feels flat.

Condo Prices (416)

Surprisingly, condos delivered one of the more stable performances of 2025. Prices dipped 2.7 percent year over year, holding around $699K. From peak, the correction sits at 15 percent, which is relatively modest given the enormous amount of inventory on the market.

That inventory is the real story. Some units are fantastic investments. Some are painfully average. Some should never have been built. But today’s pricing environment gives buyers an opportunity that did not exist for years: you can once again buy in the $400K to $500K range, which felt impossible not long ago.

For long-term thinkers, replacement costs will matter. May resale condos are priced well below what it would cost to build them today, which creates significant future upside once the supply pipeline runs dry.

Detached Sales Volume

Detached sales fell 10.4 percent year over year, reflecting a combination of buyer hesitation and seller uncertainty. This is not a supply issue. It is a sentiment issue. Buyers with strong budgets are being selective. Buyers with flexible timelines are taking their time.

Semi-Detached Sales Volume

This category produced a statistic that feels almost unreal. October 2025 recorded 263 semi sales, identical to October 2024 and identical to February 2022’s peak activity. It is one of the most consistent numbers across the entire dataset.

But flat does not mean strong. The semi-detached market is stalled because the buyer pipeline feeding into it is stalled. Until entry-level confidence improves, semis will feel the pinch.

Condo Sales Volume

Condo sales dropped 8 percent year over year, reaching 1,072 transactions in October. The contrast between resale and pre-construction is widening quickly. While resale continues to move, pre-construction has almost vanished, with developers recording only a few dozen sales per month across the GTA. This collapse in new pre-construction inventory will matter. Not today. But soon.

Total Sales Volume (All Housing Types)

Overall sales fell 9.5 percent year over year and are 32.5 percent lower than peak. The GTA is expected to finish 2025 with roughly half the sales volume we save in 2021. This is not a sign of a broken market. It is a sign of a cautious one. When confidence returns, volume returns. And confidence always returns.

New Listings (All Housing Types)

Despite speculation that a wave of sellers would hit the market, new listings were up just 2.7 percent year over year. The reality is more nuanced. Many sellers are choosing not to list. Many are kicking the decision into spring. And many would rather wait out uncertainty than test a quiet fall market.

Active Listings (All Housing Types)

Active listings increased 17.2 percent, and the total volume is up 300 percent compared to early 2022. That tripling of supply is what we are feeling on the ground. Buyers have choices. Sellers are competing for attention. And quality is standing out more clearly than ever. There is no mystery here. This is exactly what a soft cycle looks like.

Average GTA Home Price (All Housing Types)

The average Toronto home now sits at $1,054, down 7.2 percent year over year and 21 percent below peak. But over a decade, prices are still up almost 80 percent.

The lesson: personal timelines matter. Your date of purchase matters. And Toronto remains a city where values reward patience.

Listing Days on Market

Listings took an average of 31 days to sell in October 2025. The true number, including relists and strategy adjustments, sit closer to 50 days. That longer runway is affecting seller psychology, carrying costs, and negotiation styles. Buyers are asking for more. Sellers are accommodating more.

Months of Inventory

The GTA now sits at 4.53 months of supply, up 23 percent year over year and nearly five times higher than during the early 2022 peak. That shift places the market firmly into balanced-to-buyer territory, especially for condos.

This is the number that tells the truest story of the moment: we have more supply than demand, and buyers have regained leverage.

Conclusions: A Slow Market, Not a Broken One

October 2025 delivered the slowest fall in recent memory. That is the truth. But slow markets are not dysfunctional. They are transitional. They exist between cycles. They recalibrate expectations. They create opportunities for strategic buyers. They encourage clarify for motivated sellers. They reward long-term thinking.

Toronto is still Toronto. Immigration remains strong. Demand remains structural. Supply pipelines are tightening dramatically. And the fundamentals that anchor this city have not evaporated.

If you want help deciphering what this moment means for you, your timeline, and your next move, we are here for the candid conversations. We will look at your address, your options, the data, and the reality. And we will give it to you straight.

Ready to take the guesswork out of your next step? Book a strategy consult with Fox Marin.

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Fox Marin has earned its reputation as Toronto’s premier downtown luxury real estate team, backed by over *$580 million in sales, more than 1,000 successful transactions, and over 450 glowing 5-star Google Reviews. Discover the advantage of working with a proven team with a track record for winning results.
(*Source: Jan. 1, 2018 – Sept 1, 2025, RE Stats Inc. & Exclusive)

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Kori Marin is a Toronto Broker & Managing Partner at Fox Marin Associates. For high-energy real estate aficionado Kori Marin, a well-lived life is achieved by maintaining an “all-in” attitude that realizes every last ounce of one’s full potential. This mindset has driven successful results in every aspect of her life – from her corporate sales and account management experience to her international travels to her years of fitness training and leadership – and is the hallmark of the exceptional work that she does on behalf of her clients in the residential real estate sector in downtown Toronto.