Ralph Fox and Kori Marin break down the May 2026 Toronto real estate market statistics, inventory trends, affordability challenges, and what buyers and sellers should be watching heading into the summer market.
Editor’s Note: This article is adapted from Fox Marin’s monthly Toronto Real Estate Podcast market update and expanded with additional market analysis, context, and commentary to help buyers and sellers better understand current market conditions.
Key Takeaways
- GTA home sales increased 6.3% year-over-year in May
- New listings fell 18.6%
- Active inventory declined 13.3%
- Months of inventory dropped to approximately 4.1 months
- Condo sales increased 4.2%
- Average GTA prices remain below peak levels but continue recovering from January lows
- Supply trends suggest the market may be moving toward greater stability
The Headlines & The Data Are Telling Different Stories
The May 2026 market data highlights a growing gap between perception and reality.
More than 6,500 homes sold across the GTA in May, with sales volume increasing 6.3% year-over-year. While nobody would describe that as a booming market, it is a meaningful increase in activity.
As Ralph Fox observed during Fox Marin’s latest Toronto Real Estate Podcast:
“If you only read the news, you would think there were 50 sales in the month of May.”
The reality is that buyers are still buying. Families are still upsizing. Downsizers continue to make transitions. First-time buyers are still entering the market. Life events continue regardless of economic headlines.
Today’s buyers also have something they haven’t had for several years: more choice, more negotiating power, and more time to make decisions.
Kori Marin also highlighted an important trend that many consumers may be missing:
“We’re seeing a different scenario where prices are going down, and properties are taking longer to sell, but inventory is also tightening. That’s a very different conversation than what we were having a year ago.”
That observation may be one of the most important takeaways from the current market.
For buyers navigating today’s market, understanding the process is just as important as understanding the statistics. Fox Marin’s Buyer Experience Page outlines how the team helps clients evaluate opportunities, negotiate strategically, and make informed decisions in changing market conditions.
Prices Have Softened, But Not Collapsed
The average GTA home price in May was just under $1.07 million, down approximately 4.6% year over year.
Prices are still down year over year, but the pace of that decline appears to be slowing. While no one is suggesting the market is about to rebound aggressively, the data increasingly point toward stabilization rather than continued deterioration.
The City of Toronto tells a similar story. Average prices within the 416 remain below prior highs, but they have recovered meaningfully from the lows experienced earlier this year. The market is not accelerating upward, but it is no longer showing the same signs of weakness that dominated many conversations throughout 2024 and early 2025.
In January, GTA prices briefly fell below the significant $1 million mark. Since then, values have gradually improved.
For homeowners considering a move, market transitions often create opportunities that are not immediately obvious. Fox Marin’s Seller Experience page explores how pricing strategy, presentation, and timing can influence outcomes, even in slower market conditions.
The Real Story Is Inventory
While prices tend to attract headlines, inventory often tells the more important story.
In May, new listings across the GTA fell nearly 19% year-over-year. Active listings, which represent inventory sitting on the market that buyers have not yet absorbed, fell more than 13%. These figures deserve attention.
For several years, Toronto’s housing market has wrestled with an imbalance between supply and demand. Today, that equation appears to be changing.
According to Kori Marin:
“Watch new listings, active listings and months of inventory. Ultimately, that will dictate where prices are going.”
Inventory levels have been tightening for several consecutive months. When fewer sellers enter the market and buyers continue transacting steadily, available supply shrinks.
Markets rarely bottom because prices sudden rise. More often, stabilization begins quietly as inventory is absorbed, fewer sellers enter the market, and buyers gradually regain confidence. That is why inventory trends deserve so much attention right now.
Historically, this type of behaviour has often appeared before broader improvements in pricing. It does not guarantee appreciation, but it can signal that market conditions are becoming more balanced.
The market may still be searching for direction, but inventory trends suggest some excess supply from the past year is gradually being absorbed.
Why Condos May Be Closer to a Recovery Than Many Think
Few segments of the market have attracted more negative attention than Toronto condominiums.
The challenges are real. Smaller investor-owned units continue to face pressure. Rental rates have softened. Many investors remain on the sidelines.
Yet the condo market is showing signs of resilience. More than 1,000 condominium apartments were sold in Toronto during May. Condo sales increased 4.2% compared to the same period last year. The average condo price was approximately $673,000.
While prices remain below previous highs, transaction volume suggests buyers are still actively engaging with the market.
Fox believes many observers are missing an important part of the story:
“The smaller one-bedrooms and studios are really struggling, but there will come a point where those units start to move again because that’s how people live in major cities around the world.”
Another often-overlooked factor is the future supply pipeline. New condominium construction has slowed dramatically. Development starts have fallen. Many projects have been postponed or cancelled.
Several years from now, Toronto may find itself facing a very different problem: a shortage of new housing supply.
For buyers evaluating Toronto’s long-term prospects, this is an important consideration. Fox Marin’s Relocation Services resource explores why Toronto continues to attract professionals, families, and new comers despite short-term economic uncertainty.
Buyers Have More Time Than They Think
One positive development for buyers is the return of a more balanced pace.
The average property is taking approximately 27 days to sell. Compared to the pandemic frenzy, that sounds slow. Compared to most major cities around the world, it remains remarkably fast.
As Fox Pointed out:
“If you have a good property and you’re priced right, even if you own a condo, if it’s a good property and it’s marketed properly and it’s priced right, there’s a high probability you’re going to be able to sell it.”
For buyers, this environment offers something that has been missing for years: the ability to conduct due diligence. Homes can be viewed multiple times. Financing can be arranged thoughtfully. Decisions can be made with confidence rather than in a rush.
That creates a healthier marketplace for everyone involved.
Affordability Remains Toronto’s Biggest Challenge
Despite softer pricing, affordability remains one of Toronto’s biggest challenges. Higher borrowing costs, rising living expenses, and slower wage growth continue to pressure households.
During the podcast, Kori Marin reflected on how dramatically affordability has changed over the past decade. She recalled earning approximately %65,000 annually early in her career and feeling financially comfortable while living downtown in Toronto. Today, that same income would create a very different experience.
Housing costs are only one part of the equation. Food, transportation, entertainment, travel, childcare, insurance, and virtually every other expense category have risen significantly.
As Ralph Fox noted:
“It’s not just real estate. Everything surrounding real estate has become so expensive.”
For many younger buyers, the biggest challenge is not qualifying for a mortgage. It is accumulating the down payment required to enter the market.
As Kori Marin explained:
“I don’t think we’re asking or expecting prices to return to the record highs overnight. What most people want is a balanced market where there’s certainty, where buyers feel confident making decisions, and where the process feels fair again.”
That perspective reflects what many active buyers and sellers are looking for today.
After years of volatility, the goal is not rapid appreciation or bidding wars. It is confidence. Buyers want to mark informed decisions without fear of missing out, while sellers want a market that rewards thoughtful pricing and realistic expectations.
This challenge is one of the reasons Fox Marin created its First-Time Buyers Academy, a resource designed to help new buyers understand financing, deposits, market conditions, and the realities of purchasing in Toronto.
Life Doesn’t Wait For Perfect Market Conditions
One of the recurring themes Fox Marin sees in conversations with clients is that real estate decisions are rarely driven solely by statistics.
Families grow. People change jobs. Children arrive. Relationships evolve. Retirement plans shift. Life events continue regardless of what economists, politicians, or headline writers are predicting.
As Ralph Fox put it:
“People just need to get on with their lives.”
That simple observation may explain why transaction volume has remained more resilient than many expected.
Even during periods of uncertainty, people still need places to live, raise families, shorten commutes, access schools, or accommodate changing lifestyles. Real estate markets may slow down, but life rarely pauses.
The FIFA Effect & the Summer Supply Question
One wildcard in Toronto this summer is FIFA. While it may sound unusual to connect a global sporting event with real estate, many agents have been discussing its potential impact for months.
Some sellers intentionally accelerated their plans to list during the spring rather than compete with tournament-related disruptions expected throughout June and July.
If that theory proves correct, inventory could tighten even further during the summer months. Fox Marin agents are already reporting fewer quality listings coming to market in certain neighbourhoods.
Combined with the traditional summer slowdown, inventory levels may continue trending lower. That will be one of the most important metrics to monitor through June, July, and August.
What Buyers & Sellers Should Watch Next
Rather than focusing exclusively on headlines, buyers and sellers should pay close attention to three indicators over the next several months:
- New listings entering the market
- Active inventory levels
- Months of inventory
These metrics often provide an earlier indication of where the market is heading than average sale prices alone.
For example, a market can experience soft pricing while inventory quietly tightens beneath the surface. Conversely, prices can appear stable while supply begins building in the background. Looking at inventory trends provides context that a single month’s average sale price cannot.
This is one of the reasons experienced real estate professionals spend so much time monitoring inventory metrics. They often reveal where the market is heading before the headlines catch up.
If inventory continues to tighten while transaction volume remains stable, the conversation around Toronto real estate could look very different by the fall of 2026.
So, Has Toronto Found a Bottom?
The honest answer is that nobody knows for certain. Markets rarely announce their turning points in real time.
It can be said that several indicators are moving in a direction suggesting greater stability. Sales are increasing. Inventory is shrinking. Months of inventory have fallen significantly. Prices are no longer falling at the pace many expected.
That does not guarantee appreciation. It does not guarantee a strong fall market. And it certainly does not guarantee a return to the conditions of 2021.
As Kori Marin explained:
“I don’t think we’re asking for the COVID insanity to come back. What we’re looking for is a market that’s balanced, predictable, and fair.”
Instead, buyers and sellers may be witnessing the emergence of something much healthier. A market where decisions are driven by needs rather than fear. A market where buyers have options. A market where sellers can still succeed with the right strategy. And perhaps most importantly, a market that is beginning to feel predictable again.
As Ralph Fox concluded:
“It may not even be from a pricing standpoint, but just from a stability standpoint, that we might be starting to see some real support.”
After several years of volatility, that may be the most important development of all.
Whether you’re buying, selling, relocating, or investing, local market knowledge matters. Learn more about the people behind Fox Marin on our Meet The Team page and discover how our approach helps clients navigate changing market conditions with confidence.
Frequently Asked Questions
HAS TORONTO REAL ESTATE HIT BOTTOM IN 2026?
No one can know with certainty, but several leading indicators, including rising sales, declining inventory, and falling months of inventory, suggest the market may be stabilizing.
ARE TORONTO HOME PRICES STILL FALLING?
Prices remain below previous highs, but the pace of decline has slowed significantly compared to earlier periods of the correction.
IS NOW A GOOD TIME TO BUY A CONDO IN TORONTO?
For many buyers, today’s market offers greater selection, negotiating power, and less competition than in recent years.
WHAT IS MONTHS OF INVENTORY?
Months of inventory measures how long it would take to sell all current listings if no new homes came to market. It is one of the most important indicators of market balance.
WHY ARE INVENTORY LEVELS DECLINING?
Fewer new listings are coming to market while transaction volume has improved, leading to tighter overall supply.
WILL TORONTO REAL ESTATE PRICES REBOUND QUICKLY?
Most industry professionals expect a gradual recovery rather than a rapid return to previous peak pricing levels.
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(*Source: Jan. 1, 2018 – Sept 1, 2025, RE Stats Inc. & Exclusive)
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This article was written by Ralph Fox, Broker of Record and Managing Partner here at Fox Marin Associates. Ralph is a Torontonian native who recognized from an early age that the most successful people in life apply long-term thinking to their investments, relationships, and life goals. It’s this philosophy, along with his lifelong entrepreneurial drive and exceptional business instincts, that help to establish Ralph as a top agent in the real estate market in downtown Toronto.
