Nobody’s Budging: Inside Toronto’s Fall Real Estate Standoff
October 2026 | Fox Marin Associates
You can be the only person making an offer on a Toronto home right now and still walk away empty-handed. No bidding war, no competing buyer. Just a seller unwilling to accept your offer and a negotiation that ends almost as quickly as it began.
It’s becoming a familiar story across Toronto this fall. Buyers have spent months hearing about declining prices, sluggish sales and growing inventory, and many expect to find exceptional opportunities. But sellers aren’t as motivated as the headlines suggest, and homes at the prices people are willing to pay are proving difficult to secure.
After an unexpectedly active summer, Toronto’s fall real estate market has settled into an unusual stalemate. Buyers and sellers are looking at the same market, drawing very different conclusions, and increasingly choosing to do nothing.
For our team at Fox Marin, the shifts been striking. Throughout June, July and August, activity was encouraging, and there was reason to believe September would bring renewed momentum. Instead, uncertainty about Canada’s trade relationship with the United States, interest rates and deep concerns about the wider economy changed the mood almost overnight.
As Ralph Fox reflected during our latest Toronto Real Estate Podcast, this has been one of the quietest fall markets he’s experienced in nearly two decades. “It feels more like July than it does September, October,” he observed.
To explore what’s happening beneath the headlines, Ralph and Kori Marin sat down with Jessica Spillas, Ian Busher, Reuben Labovitz and Jerome Werniuk for a candid discussion about what they’re experiencing firsthand across central and downtown Toronto.
The conversation revealed buyer psychology, seller expectations, and a market that has become increasingly difficult to interpret through traditional statistics alone.
Watch the Full Episode
In this episode of the Toronto Real Estate Podcast, Ralph Fox, Broker of Record; Kori Marin, Co-founder; Jessica Spillas and Ian Busher, both VP sales; Reuben Labovitz, Broker and Sales Director; and Jerome Werniuk, Sales Representative and Sales Director, share their perspectives on Toronto’s fall 2026 real estate amrket.
The Market Is Slow. The Good Houses Aren’t.
September recorded 1,937 sales across the City of Toronto, with an average selling price of about $1.03 million and 4.6 months of inventory. Across the wider GTA, sales declined 9% year over year. By most conventional measures, buyers should have considerably more negotiating power than they have had in years.
In certain market segments, they absolutely are. Condominium buyers, for example, benefit from greater selection, longer selling periods and sellers are more willing to negotiate after a prolonged downturn. But the experience can be very different for someone searching for a well-located, renovated family home in an established neighbourhood.
In September, semi-detached homes in Toronto carried about 2.7 months of inventory and sold in an average of 20 days, putting this asset class in a seller’s market. Condominiums, by comparison, had six months of inventory and were taking roughly twice as long to sell.
These are two very different markets operating within the same city. The differences become even more pronounced when you look at individual neighbourhoods, price points, and property characteristics.
Jerome Werniuk, who works extensively in Toronto’s East End, described buyers arriving with expectations formed by months of negative headlines, often encouraged by friends or family to negotiate aggressively. The surprise comes when they start viewing properties and realize how few genuinely meet their needs.
Jerome estimates only about 5% of the East End listings he sees are properties his buyer clients would seriously consider. That’s his assessment of available inventory quality, not an official statistic. However, it helps explain why some homes attract multiple offers while others sit unsold.
“It doesn’t matter if there’s a million listings to choose from; if there’s only a couple that are worth buying, those are the only ones you care about as a buyer.” – Jerome Werniuk, Sales Director, Fox Marin
It’s a distinction we discuss with clients almost daily. More inventory doesn’t necessarily mean more meaningful choice, especially when buyers have specific requirements about location, layout, condition and lifestyle.
Toronto’s neighbourhoods are also behaving very differently. Jessica Spillas spoke about the resilience of Roncesvalles, while Reuben Labovitz and Jerome described the significant differences they’re tracking between apparently comparable pockets of the city. Even within Leslieville, the market for a two-bedroom semi can behave quite differently from the market for a three-bedroom home with parking.
These details can greatly affect how a property is valued, how quickly it sells and how much competition a buyer faces. Applying a citywide price decline to a specific home doesn’t reflect the realities of Toronto’s fragmented market.
Perhaps the most interesting part of our discussion was just how disconnected buyers and sellers have become.
Jessica described 2026 as a year with more outright offer rejections than in her previous eleven years in the business. Reuben shared a similar experience, explaining several of his recent offers were declined without another buyer involved. “We haven’t lost out to somebody else,” he said.
From the buyer’s perspective, the reasoning is understandable. They’ve spent months hearing about declining prices, slowing sales and growing inventory. They naturally expect sellers to be motivated and ready to negotiate.
The problem is that many sellers aren’t.
Across central Toronto, many homeowners have substantial equity and little financial pressure to move. They may want to sell, but if the market doesn’t fulfill their expectations, they are often comfortable staying put.
In fact, as Ralph noted during the podcast:
“We’re talking people far more out of selling than into selling.” – Ralph Fox, Broker of Record, Fox Marin
We regularly talk with homeowners who understand prices have softened and believe they’re prepared to accept that reality. But when we show them what their property would likely achieve today, many decide to wait. Many prospective sellers are already considering spring 2027 and skipping the spring market entirely.
This hesitance to sell this fall is contributing to the shortage of desirable inventory. In this environment, some of the better homes coming to market are estate sales, job-related relocations or properties owned by people whose finances allow them to move regardless of conditions.
Reuben pointed to an interesting example: homeowners who purchased four or five years ago and are now prepared to sell at a loss because they’re moving into a substantially more expensive property. For them, the potential upside of their next purchase could outweigh the loss of selling their current home for less than they paid.
For everyone else, the decision is more complicated. When buyers expect substantial discounts but sellers have little incentive to accept them, finding common ground becomes increasingly difficult.
Kori raised another interesting aspect of this disconnect: how people determine what a property is actually worth.
Traditionally, recent comparable sales provided a common reference point for buyers, sellers and agents. Today, people often interpret those figures through a more personal lens.
“Comps are a hundred percent dead, I think. I honestly feel like no one cares about what anything else is sold for.” – Kori Marin, Co-founder, Fox Marin
Kori was deliberately provocative, but there was considerable consensus around the table.
Buyers increasingly look at what a seller originally paid, what renovations they believed are needed, and what they personally consider the property worth, without giving much weight to past sales.
Sellers can be equally selective, placing considerable value on renovations or improvements that the market might not be prepared to recognize.
The irony is consumers have access to more real estate information than ever. Historical sales, listing histories and neighbourhood data are readily available. Yet access to more information often leads to more confusion and subjective reasoning.
Comparable sales remain fundamental to grasping market value. But when both sides have firmly established subjective expectations, even the best evidence can struggle to move the dialogue forward.
This approach also has a human cost. Jessica spoke candidly about the psychological strain repeated unsuccessful offers take on buyers, especially when they’ve begun imagining their lives in a property.
An offer submitted to see what happens may seem harmless. But when buyers become attached to a home and envision their future life, even an expected rejection can be devastating.
Good negotiation requires understanding where an opportunity exists. Chasing a discount for its own sake can distract from why someone wanted to buy the property.
Looking for a home in Toronto? If the market feels more confusing than expected, our Fox Marin Buyer Intake is a good place to start. Understanding your priorities and budget helps us identify real opportunities.
Confidence, Affordability and a Different Kind of Buyer
The challenges facing Toronto’s real estate market extend well beyond pricing.
As Kori observed, many households feel cautious. Worries about job security, the economy and rising everyday costs affect decisions that might have appeared straightforward a few years ago.
Even people who can comfortably afford to purchase are questioning whether now is the right time to make a major financial commitment. Uncertainty around Canada’s trade relationship with the United States, the direction of interest rates, and the wider economy has only added to that hesitation.
While home prices have declined from their peaks, affordability hasn’t improved as much as some buyers expected. Higher borrowing costs mean buying a property at even a 20 percent discount today can still result in monthly mortgage payments comparable to, or greater than, those for a more expensive home at the market peak in 2022.
It’s a difficult reality for buyers who have spent years waiting for prices to fall.
However, another change is taking place that we find particularly interesting.
Reuben noted many buyers he’s working with focus less on short-term appreciation and more on finding a property that suits their lives. Instead of seeing their first purchase as a stepping stone, they’re considering whether a property could accommodate them for fifteen or twenty years.
After the volatility of the past several years, buyers are starting to realize that appreciation isn’t guaranteed and moving comes with considerable financial costs.
Kori offered an important qualification. The ability to value lifestyle over financial considerations frequently depends on access to family wealth. Buyers receiving substantial help from parents or relatives can approach homeownership very differently from someone who has spent a decade saving for a down payment.
This distinction matters more than ever in Toronto.
As Ralph reflected, one of the most striking lessons of his career is the extraordinary wealth concentrated in Toronto, particularly generational wealth. Even during difficult economic periods, some households make purchasing decisions with little concern for brief market changes.
At the same time, many others struggle with affordability as well as the broader cost of living. Both experiences affect today’s housing market in very different ways.
This helps explain why demand for desirable homes can remain surprisingly competitive while other segments struggle.
Where Do We Go From Here?
Our team’s outlook for the rest of 2026 was generally cautious.
Ian expects November and December to follow the traditional seasonal slowdown, with little sign that activity from earlier in the year will return before 2027. Ralph shared a similarly subdued outlook, especially given how quickly sentiment deteriorated after Labour Day.
Kori was somewhat more optimistic that Toronto’s October 26 municipal election could provide a modest boost to sentiment, particularly if proposed land transfer tax relief becomes a reality. The Bank of Canada’s October 28 interest rate announcement will also be closely watched.
Whether either development changes the market remains to be seen. Greater confidence may encourage more buyers to act, but it won’t necessarily bring more desirable homes to market or persuade sellers to adjust expectations.
For now, we’re expecting a relatively quiet conclusion to the year, with considerable attention already turning toward spring 2027.
For buyers, this market offers genuine opportunities, but they need patience, careful analysis and realistic expectations. For sellers, accurate pricing and a clear understanding of local competition have rarely been more important. For those not under pressure to move, waiting may be sensible.
The Fox Marin Perspective
One of our favourite moments from the conversation came when Jerome described a question he often asks buyers who are becoming overly focused on negotiating the lowest possible price.
He encourages them to imagine themselves ten years from now, sitting around the dinner table with friends or family. Will they still be talking about the extra $30,000 they managed to negotiate off the purchase price? Or will they be talking about the home they love, the neighbourhood they’ve become part of and the life they’ve built there?
That perspective carries considerable wisdom. After years of dramatic appreciation, rising interest rates, market corrections and economic uncertainty, perhaps we’re seeing a healthier relationship develop between people and their homes. Financial considerations will always matter, but a home is also somewhere to live, raise a family, build relationships and integrate into a community. Those things have value, even if they don’t appear on a spreadsheet.
The same principle applies to sellers. Sometimes the right decision is to accept that the market has changed and it’s time to move on. Other times, it’s to recognize that selling today doesn’t make sense for your circumstances.
Our job is to help people understand the difference.
And in a market where everyone seems to be waiting for someone else to make the first move, that kind of perspective may be more valuable than ever.
Thinking about buying or selling in Toronto? We’d be happy to hear what you’re considering and share our thoughts on what makes sense for you. Connect with the Fox Marin Team (We’re Nice!).
Stay Curious. Stay Informed.
The Toronto real estate market is always evolving. Whether you’re buying, selling, investing, or simply keeping an eye on what’s happening in the city, we’re here to help you make sense of it.
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This article was written by Ralph Fox, Broker of Record and Managing Partner here at Fox Marin Associates. Ralph is a Torontonian native who recognized from an early age that the most successful people in life apply long-term thinking to their investments, relationships, and life goals. It’s this philosophy, along with his lifelong entrepreneurial drive and exceptional business instincts, that help to establish Ralph as a top agent in the real estate market in downtown Toronto.
Ralph Fox & Kori Marin
Kori and Ralph's love affair with Toronto Real Estate have spanned several decades! It is incredible to see how far their mad crazy passion for design, architecture and innovation has taken them, which is only the beginning of their bigger vision and relentless goal-setting! Kori and Ralph have created this forum for their readers to explore the good, the bad, and the sometimes ugly real estate. An honest perspective about the ins & outs of the business - one in which they live, work and experience first hand every day. Nothing is more interesting than the "real" in real estate!
