Toronto Fall 2026 Market: What’s Selling and What’s Stuck

If you turn on the news this fall, you might think that no one with a sound mind is buying property. With interest rates on the rise, a trade war, and conflicts erupting abroad, it seems like an uncertain period to make your biggest purchase. Yet transactions are still happening, quality properties are still selling quickly, and serious buyers are very active.

The gap between the pessimism expressed in the comments of our YouTube channel and the reality on the ground is glaring. That’s why we decided to take a deep dive into the subject. In the most Fox Marin conversation, Ralph Fox, Fox Marin Broker of Record, is joined by Jessica Spillas, VP at Fox Marin and co-founder Kori Marin, to examine what the fall 2026 Toronto Market may actually look like, who the buyers are, what is being sold, why so many properties remain on the market, and where prices will you go here. This analysis focuses on the 416, which is central and downtown Toronto, and is very different from the wider GTA outlier areas like Brampton, Milton, or the outer commuter areas.

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If reading isn’t your thing, press play. Ralph Fox and Kori Marin share insights they’ve gained from years of guiding hundreds of buyers and sellers across Toronto.

The Buyers Never Actually Left

According to Jessica Spillas, Vice President at Fox Marin, people would be surprised to learn that many buyers are out there and have been looking for months. The issue during the summer wasn’t demand but supply, more precisely the quality of the supply; although it seemed there was a large amount of stock available, upon closer examination most of it turned out not to be up to standard.

“Even if it looked like there was a large amount of inventory on the market, when you look more closely, most of it was low-quality inventory – basically what I refer to as the sales rack at Winners, which you have to go through carefully. It’s the sort of thing no one wants. It’s the leftover stuff.” – Jessica Spillas, VP, Fox Marin

The shift commenced after Labour Day weekend, with a number of new listings coming in, and early indications show this new batch is considerably better than the spring leftover properties that sat on the market all summer. It should be noted that having a property listed online and seeing it in person are quite different things.

That’s why it seems like no one is buying: the people who are looking to buy are taking longer. Decisions which used to be made in a weekend now take several weeks. This slower pace distorts the data and creates the false impression of a deserted market, even though buyers have simply raised their standards. As Spillas says, “whenever you raise the bar, I think it changes the game a little bit, and we’re seeing that play out in real time.”

Fatigue is another factor which is easily underestimated. After over a year of constant, sensational news, buyers have generally stopped being alarmed by each new one. As Ralph Fox points out, life moves on; people are still being born, getting married, getting divorced, changing jobs. The pandemic reinforced that lesson. There comes a time when a home purchase or sale can not be put off longer than life permits.

The Entitlement Problem Cuts Both Ways

Buyers arrive with a sense of entitlement. It becomes an issue when the buyer’s expectations clash with the seller’s and market realities – and that’s exactly where a competent agent earns their commission: by narrowing the gap and getting both parties to agree on realistic terms.

What do new buyers most often get wrong? They confuse looking for the best deal with looking for the best value. “There’s a house which might be the best deal, and there’s another house that provides the best value, and often the two aren’t linked,” Spillas points out. A “deal” means you are paying the lowest price, and for good reason. Good value refers to what you get for the price you pay. Properties that offer great value in Toronto tend to sell quickly, often in a downward market.

That’s why the Fox Marin team encourages buyers to be the first in the door when something genuinely great becomes available. Going first gives you the opportunity to do your due diligence because you might just end up having to compete for it. Although the market currently has more supply than in recent years, Toronto still suffers from a quality problem, and that’s not expected to change anytime soon.

What’s Selling, and What’s Sitting

The single most important rule that remains valid today is, in fact, the oldest one. “I know it’s a term that’s considered overdone these days, but location, location, location,” Kori Marin says. Other features of the properties being sold this autumn are also typical: they have good layouts, adequate parking, are turnkey, command reasonable prices, are near public transport and good schools, and, if possible, have some potential to produce income.

“In my opinion, anything can be sold, provide it’s well presented, in a desirable location, and the figures add up to people’s satisfaction.” – Kori Marin, Co-founder, Fox Marin

Properties that have a hard time selling are those that have been listed and then taken off the market time and again, often passing through three or four different brokerages over the years, and which are poorly presented, awkwardly arranged, and still priced far too high. Ralph Fox talks about two specific scenarios that are the most painful in the market right now: the first is investors who bought small, divided three-bedroom condo units at peak prices before construction was completed units that are nearly impossible to live in and hard to sell at any price.

The second is unrenovated houses, even in good areas, which in a more heated market could have relied on their location alone but now suffer because few people are willing to carry out renovations given current costs and uncertainty. Buyers’ attention has now focused strongly on properties that are turnkey and move-in ready.

As Fox says, drawing a comparison with Warren Buffett, when the tide recedes, you discover who isn’t wearing a bathing suit. For many years during the three-decade market bull run, people could hide their poor real estate choices. Now, four years into the downturn, those bad decisions can no longer be masked, and some properties are effectively unsellable until the cycle reverses.

The Listing History Trap

A modern-day buyer will have already viewed the property via satellite imagery, looked up the address on Google, checked it on Reddit, and pulled the full sales history from HouseSigma. They know the price you paid, the number of times it has been put on the market and the prices at which this happened, and the series of unsuccessful listings leaves what Spillas refers to as a permanent stain.

“When buyers see a long list of failed listings, they are very ready to stand up and oppose the situation. Even if it seems like a good chance, fear remains, since they reason they must have overlooked something the buyers before them spotted.” – Jessica Spillas, VP, Fox Marin

The instinct is so strong that even experienced agents experience it. Kori Marin acknowledges that in her case, just as it does with any buyer, a property that has been listed eight times at eight different prices causes the same reaction: there must be something wrong with it. The message is clear: set the price correctly the first time and avoid “testing the market,” since a failed listing history stigmatizes a property for years.

AI Has Entered the Chat

The most noticeable change this cycle has been how buyers are doing their research. Nowadays, many younger buyers use ChatGPT and Claude to review property listings before booking a viewing, asking how much a home is worth and what to look out for. Often, AI produces a long, detailed checklists, and buyers turn up with questions that once would have been seen as excessive.

Spillas says a buyer once asked for radon testing, which is very unusual. AI has given every buyer, no matter how much experience they have, a huge amount of information they often don’t know how to sort through, and the outcome is usually not a greater grasp but increased confusion and fear. The buyer will read the AI-generated prompt requesting radon testing, then search online for information about radon, and end up more worried than they were before.

Kori Marin points out the obvious similarity: this is just Dr. Google on a much bigger scale. We enter in our symptoms or our lab results and then tell ourselves that either we’ll live forever or we’ll die next week. She adds that sometimes you don’t want another list to work through; instead, you’ll like to speak to a person who can provide actual feedback and context.

“I just want to have an interpersonal connection and have a conversation about these data points, for these reasons. And I think that’s kind of where we’re at.” – Kori Marin, Co-founder, Fox Marin

Ralph Fox has observed a longer historical trend throughout his career. Each time the industry prepared for technology that some asserted would make agents obsolete, the contrary occurred. When listing data becomes available to the public, realtor use increased rather than decreased. When discount and do-it-yourself options came along, demand for full-service agents continued to rise. The more information people are overwhelmed with, the more they want guidance to help them understand it. However, Fox stresses that you must do your own due diligence to find out where that guidance comes from; otherwise, you may end up still trying to offload a house that was first put on the market in 2023. You don’t want to end up in that position.

The Valuation Disconnect

Even though AI is changing how buyers act, a persistent pricing gap still hinders sellers. In 2026, many sellers still base their pricing on valuation figures from a year or two earlier, using as a benchmark the price that a neighbour obtained in 2022. Kori Marin makes it clear that those prices have long since disappeared. Instead, sellers should price their property based on activity over the last two to three months, not figures from the last two or three years.

In reality, during this recent downturn, “empowered” buyers pay no attention to comparables. They don’t care about the price at which the identical property in the same block sold two weeks ago. Today, when deliberating on an offer price, buyers assess what the house is worth to them on that particular day and then deduct the cost of all the renovations they plan to carry out, such as the kitchen, the flooring, the painting, the driveway. This approach is subjective, emotional, and mostly independent of the critical comparisons to past sales. In a market where buyers are empowered, they will use their own methodology before making an offer.

What a Million Dollars Buys in Toronto

The August figures fell below a psychological benchmark: the average sale price in the GTA dropped below $1M. That brings up a natural question: what can a million dollars actually buy in Toronto at this time?

Right now in Toronto, you have many options, depending on where you put your money. With a million dollars, you can easily afford a pretty good condo, a unique loft, or a condo that’s got townhouse features. When it comes to the low-rise homes, the options begin to narrow. Kori Marin believes you can still find something really appealing, such as a nice two-plus-one in the right area, even if the bathrooms may need work in the future. By contrast, Ralph Fox and Jessica Spillas are more doubtful about the prospects of buying low-rise property in the most desirable central areas.

Kori Marin is a firm supporter and is puzzled by the current negative sentiment toward condos. This pricing downturn won’t last forever. Strong evidence supports this view; the argument is supply-driven. Very little new condo supply is expected to become available after early 2027.

“I think people are going to look back at this moment in time, and they’re going to see it on a graph, and they’re going to kick themselves for not buying as many condos as they could.” – Jessica Spillas, VP, Fox Marin

The reason is simple: it’s a matter of supply and demand. When the supply of high-quality condos disappears for most of a decade, the condominiums that are currently livable and well-functioning will become ever more appealing. Fox insists this is not an attempt to create FOMO. No major changes will take place tomorrow, but for buyers who can look beyond the present downturn, the long-term trend towards a supply shock by the early 2030s is difficult to dispute.

The Fall 2026 Forecast

Jessica Spillas is the most optimistic. She believes a flood of high-quality properties will attract buyers again, causing a brief increase in activity that will likely fade by the end of November as the holidays begin. The best turnkey properties in prime locations will sell quickly, usually with multiple offers, so buyers should be prepared to act quickly. However, she does not think prices will change significantly in either direction. In her view, this indicates that the market has reached a bottom.

“If you’re a buyer and you do feel some sense of urgency, then make that urgency about finding the correct house rather than the idea that prices are going to rise tomorrow.” – Jessica Spillas, VP, Fox Marin

Kori Marin is now more pessimistic than she had anticipated. She expects a trade deal to be signed by now, and the fact that it hasn’t is dampening the market. She expects both a reduction in sales volume and a slight fall in prices compared to spring 2026. The one contrarian view is that she holds high conviction that, in 2026, condos are experiencing a comeback, not in terms of prices but in sales volume, at all price levels.

Ralph Fox was more in the middle, even though he admits he is generally the FM resident pessimist. He agrees with RBC’s view that the market is approaching some sort of bottom, prices remaining volatile but within the range they have been in for the past eighteen months. He says inventory will tighten more than expected. A number of property owners who were planning to list this fall are now looking instead at spring. He anticipates a fairly weak fall, one that sees inventory tightening, with the most desirable homes in the best locations still performing better, both cautious buyers and cautious sellers delaying their decisions, and the season ending early, maybe by the end of October.

The only uncertainty regarding any forecast is the possibility of a black swan event. Fox feels it’s as high as it’s been in a long time. Otherwise, the base scenario is gradually tightening inventories, prices staying about the same, and desirable properties maintaining their position while the rest of the market holds back.

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Fox Marin is recognized as one of Toronto’s most trusted real estate teams, with 550+ five-star Google reviews, more than 1,000 successful transactions, and over $700 million in sales volume.
(*Source: RE Stats Inc. / Loft47, Jan. 1, 2018 – Aug. 31, 2026)

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This article was written by Ralph Fox, Broker of Record and Managing Partner here at Fox Marin Associates. Ralph is a Torontonian native who recognized from an early age that the most successful people in life apply long-term thinking to their investments, relationships, and life goals. It’s this philosophy, along with his lifelong entrepreneurial drive and exceptional business instincts, that help to establish Ralph as a top agent in the real estate market in downtown Toronto.