Toronto Real Estate at Mid-Year 2026: What June’s Numbers Reveal. Has the Recovery Started?
Is the Toronto real estate market finally finding its footing? Based on June 2026 data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), the answer is a cautious yes with important caveats depending on what and where you buy or sell.
Here’s the short version: sales across the GTA rose 9.4% year over year in June, with 6,770 transactions through the MLS system. New listings fell 13%. Months of inventory, arguably the most telling supply-and-demand metric, dropped to four months, down a full month from last year and well off the 5.8 months recorded in January. Average prices have climbed 8.77% from their January low, moving back toward the psychologically significant million-dollar mark.
None of this means the market is about to take off. But after several years of decline across most metrics, the trend lines are pointing to some needed semblance of stability.
Watch the Full Episode
Prefer to watch instead of read? In this episode, Ralph Fox and Kori Marin discuss this topic and share practical insights drawn from helping hundreds of Toronto buyers and sellers.
The Big Picture: Why Leading Indicators Matter More Than Headlines
If you only read the headlines, you might assume almost no properties are selling in 2026. The reality is different. Nearly 6,800 households across the GTA bought or sold a home last month because life doesn’t pause for market cycles. People get married, have children, relocate for work, downsize, and divorce in every market; in other words, life moves on.
The more important story lives beneath the sales figure. New listings are down 12-13% year over year. Active listings are down 13%. Months of inventory are down a full month. These are leading indicators that tend to move before prices do, indicating what’s to come.
“Prices are a lagging indicator of where the market is going”
Explains Ralph Fox, Broker of Record and co-founder of Fox Marin.
“If you want to know where the market is going, it comes down to supply and demand. Look at the demand, look at the sales, look at the trajectory the sales are going in, and look at how many new properties are coming on the market.”
By that measure, the picture is tightening. Sales have accelerated for six consecutive months, from just over 3,000 transactions in January to nearly 7,000 in June, while the supply of quality inventory shrinks.
Fox cautions:
“Does that mean the market is going to rip in the fall? Absolutely not. But it is starting to show that we are potentially getting a bit more stability in the market in a way that we haven’t seen in the last few years.”
Pricing: The Rebound From January’s Low
Toronto’s average sale price dipped below $1 million earlier this year, landing at $973,000 in January, a figure the city hadn’t seen in years. However, it didn’t stay there long.
As Fox stated:
“The million-dollar mark is a real psychological number. Seeing it drop in January, everybody chimed in saying it’s going to go further. At that time, I said I didn’t think it would last very long to rebound, and it didn’t.”
Prices have since traced a V-shaped recovery on the 12-month chart, rebounding to roughly where they sat last June and July. Some of that is seasonal; January is reliably the softest month of the year. But an 8.77% climb from the bottom is more than a seasonal wobble.
Whether this constitutes a durable floor is the question every buyer and seller in Toronto asks. For a deeper look at how to time a purchase or sale around these cycles, our Buying and Selling resources are a good place to start.
The Segment Scoreboard: A Tale of Two Markets
Toronto remains a sharply bifurcated market:
Detached homes: Sales up slightly, average price up 0.3%. The most expensive segment in the market is moving sideways, which, after the correction, counts as a sign of stability.
Semi-detached: Sales down 3.2%, and prices softened 1.1%.
Townhouses: Volume essentially flat (down 0.4%), prices up 1.5%.
Condo apartments: Sales up a striking 14.3% year over year, while prices fell another 9% in the 416 and 10.6% in the 905.
The low-rise market is now sitting in the high-two-month range for inventory, firmly in seller’s market territory, given that a balanced market runs four to six months. Condos are sitting at roughly 5.8-5.9 months, remaining in a buyer’s market. The gap between the two assets classes has been the defining story of Toronto real estate in 2026.
It’s also creating tension on the ground.
“A lot of agents on our team are starting to have clients who are getting desperate”
Fox notes of the low-rise search.
“They just can’t find anything that makes sense to them. We’re constantly reminding buyer clients that if it’s not a great property, they don’t have to be desperate. They have time.”
The Condo Comeback: Demand Didn’t Wait for the Headlines
If 2026 has a comeback story, it’s the condo market, a segment Kori Marin, co-founder of Fox Marin, predicted would turn this year.
A 14.3% jump in sales volume alongside falling prices tells you that buyers are responding to value, not momentum. And, critically, the average month-over-month condo price has stopped falling and begun to move sideways, often the first sign that a segment is finding its floor.
The affordability math explains why. According to RBC Economics’ Q1 2026 housing report, carrying a typical Toronto condo now requires 35.2% of pre-tax household income (covering mortgage, property taxes, and utilities), roughly where it sat in late 2019, before the pandemic boom. By RBC’s measure, Toronto condos are as affordable as they’ve been in six years. Detached homes, by contrast, still consume about 80% of the average household income.
Fox Marin is seeing this shift in real time. As Fox notes:
“This isn’t us FOMO-ing. We’re having one to two people inquiring every day about buying a condo downtown. When you look at what you can buy for $400,000 or $450,000 compared to a low-rise house, that gap is very wide.”
For perspective on how far the market has travelled: Kori Marin’s first resale condo deal, roughly 15 years ago, was a junior one-bedroom in an east-end building that sold for $229,000. Today’s entry-level pricing, considering years of appreciation and construction cost inflation, is a genuine anomaly. Many units now trade well below replacement cost, with very little new supply coming behind them.
That said, “the Toronto condo market” is a misleading phrase.
“It really isn’t one market unto itself; it’s a whole bunch of submarkets”
Fox explains. Tenanted investor units and awkward floor plans continue to languish, while well-located, livable suites in quality buildings sell. As Kori Marin puts it:
“Every building almost has its own micro-market: the age, the maintenance fees, the amenities, the views, whether it’s owner-occupied or rental-occupied. You often can’t look outside your building for validation of what your suite is worth.”
First-time buyers weighing this window can find structured guidance through our First-Time Home Buyer Academy, and anyone moving to the city can start with the Toronto Relocation Academy.
The Affordability Reset: And Its Limits
RBC’s report contains a few findings worth sitting with:
The affordability story is a condo story, not a “housing is cheap” story. Detached ownership remains out of reach for the average household.
The window may be closing slowly rather than suddenly. RBC projects flat prices for roughly two years, with future affordability gains coming from rising wages rather than falling prices and believes interest rates have bottomed.
Ralph Fox disagrees on that last point.
“RBC has probably been the best of all the big banks at predicting Bank of Canada moves, but I think they’re wrong. I think we’re going lower. AI will be a deflating force in the economy, our economy is weakening, and I think the Bank will have to support it.”
Perhaps the most striking data point: for the first time in 16 years, Montreal condos are now less affordable than Toronto’s, with Halifax closing in. Buyers leaving Toronto for affordability bring demand and inflation with them.
Fox observes:
“It’s such an interesting story, people leaving Toronto and driving up prices wherever they go. I don’t think Montreal will hold that flip for long. Toronto will regain its crown.”
One City, Five Micro-Markets: A Downtown Tour
Toronto is less a single market than a mosaic of submarkets. Here’s how five central MLS zones performed in June.
C01: KING WEST, LIBERTY VILLAGE, CITYPLACE, HARBOURFRONT
The heart of downtown condo country. Sales up 5.4%; average price essentially flat at roughly $852,000 (down 1.2%). The headline: active listings plunged 32%, pulling months of inventory down to 5.1 from 6.3. Home sold at an average 98% of list in 34 days.
C08: ST. LAWRENCE MARKET, CORKTOWN, DISTILLERY DISTRICT, REGENT PARK, MOSS PARK
Sales surged 20% year over year, while the average price fell 11%, with buyers responding to value.
Active listings dropped 21%, and inventory eased from 7.3 months to just over six.
Average of 95% of list price, 36 days on market.
C02: YORKVILLE, THE ANNEX, CASA LOMA, SUMMERHILL
June’s biggest surprise is very counterintuitive. In the heart of the central luxury market, sales fell 24%, as the average price dropped 19% (from roughly $2.1 million to the high $1.7 million), and inventory actually rose to 6.1 months.
Fox admits:
“This one’s a little surprising. We’re in a K-shaped economy where people who own stocks, gold, and hard assets are doing really well and tend to be less concerned about interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty. It’s counterintuitive to what we’re seeing elsewhere.”
Kori Marin offers an important statistical caveat: In a low-volume luxury area, a couple of large sales last June could skew a single-month, year-over-year comparison. One month of data is a snapshot, not a verdict.
Buyers and sellers in this segment can explore our dedicated FM Luxury page.
E01: LESLIEVILLE, RIVERDALE, RIVERSIDE
One of the city’s most protected pockets throughout the downturn, and a magnet for young families graduating from their first condo. Sales dipped 10% (on small volume – 70 sales versus 78), but the average price rose 5.5%. Inventory sits at a remarkably tight 2.4 months, with homes selling at 110% of list in just 13 days.
Context matters here. Fox recalls:
“In the boom days, if a seller was holding an offer date in Riverdale or Leslieville, the intention was to get 20% above list; that was just standard. Now we’re seeing offer nights with ten offers but reasonable sale prices. These numbers are more muted, and they make sense.”
Kori Marin adds a strategic note:
“Back in the heyday, listing agents would price way below market expectations, knowing they’d get 20 people bidding. Now, listing agents, including ourselves, are pricing closer to actual market value. So percentage-to-list has to be read through that lens.”
W01: HIGH PARK, RONCESVALLES, PARKDALE
The west-end mirror of E01. Sales essentially flat (53 versus 55), average price up nearly 5% to $1.33 million, inventory under four months at 3.8, and homes selling at 105% of list in 28 days. The market is not crashing everywhere in family-oriented freehold corridors; it’s quietly competitive.
The Mid-Year Playbook: Buyers, Sellers, Investors
FOR BUYERS: The condo window is real, and RBC’s data backs it up. Your negotiating leverage is strongest in C01 and C08, where selection remains deep, and sellers are motivated. In freehold pockets like E01 and W01, prepare for competition but competition with discipline, not the frenzy of years past.
FOR SELLERS: If you’re listing this fall, price to the last 90 days of comparable sales. Kori Marin insists:
“You’re not going back to what things were selling for in 2025 or 2024, and you cannot get your pricing from what is currently listed on the market.”
Downtown condos still attract demand, but only with sharp pricing and standout presentation. With TRREB expecting further inventory tightening in the second half of 2026, a well-executed fall launch could catch real momentum.
Our Selling and Staging pages outline how we approach both.
FOR INVESTORS: Lower prices, firm rents, and the BOC 2.25% overnight lending rate are slowly showing that some properties are starting to pencil again. C08 currently pencils best for investors running the numbers. RBC sees stable pricing over the next two years, which could stabilize the market and entice some investors to dip their toes back in.
Frequently Asked Questions
The leading indicators – six consecutive months of rising sales, falling new listings, and inventory down to four months – point toward stabilization rather than a sharp recovery. Prices remain soft in some segments, but the supply-demand balance is tightening.
By RBC’s affordability measure, Toronto condos are back to late-2019 levels, requiring 35.2% of pre-tax income to carry. Sales volume jumped 14.3% in June even as prices fell, suggesting that value-driven buyers are re-entering the market. That said, the condo market is a collection of submarkets; building quality, floor plan, and fees matter enormously.
Months of inventory measures how long it would take to sell all active listings (assuming nothing new comes to market) at the current sales pace. Four to six months is considered balanced; below four favours sellers, above six favours buyers. It’s a leading indicator; it typically moves before prices do.
Both, depending on the segment. Low-rise homes (detached, semis, towns) sit in the high-two-month inventory range, a seller’s market.
Condos, at nearly six months, remain a buyer’s market. This bifurcation is the defining feature of the 2026 market.
The average price has rebounded 8.77% from its January low, and condo prices have begun moving sideways rather than down.
Detached prices were flat year over year in June. But one strong quarter isn’t proof of a floor; more data and time are needed before calling it definitively.
Rising sales absorb inventory first, and prices respond later. Prices are a lagging indicator. The sideways movement in average condo prices over recent months suggests the price decline may be losing steam.
Family-oriented freehold pockets like Leslieville/Riverdale/Playter Estates (E01) and High Park/Roncesvalles (W01) are tightest, with 2.4 and 3.8 months of inventory, respectively, homes selling above list, and days on market as low as 13.
Downtown condo zones C01 (King West, Liberty Village, CityPlace) and C08 (St. Lawrence Market, Corktown, Distillery District) offer the most selection and leverage, with C08 currently pencilling best for investors.
Use comparable sales from the last 90 days only, not 2024 or 2025 sale prices, and not current list prices of active competitors, which reflect aspiration rather than market reality.
Opinions differ. RBC believes rates have bottomed, with the overnight rate at 2.25%. Others, including Ralph Fox, expect further cuts, citing a weakening economy and deflationary pressures from AI. Buyers should stress-test their budgets against both scenarios.
Use with caution. The listing strategy has changed. Agents now price closer to true market value rather than deliberately underpricing to spark bidding wars, which lowers percentage-to-list figures compared to the boom years.
Yes, but the escape hatches are narrowing. Montreal condos are now less affordable than Toronto’s for the first time in 16 years, and Montreal, Quebec City, Winnipeg, and St. John’s have all become pricier as buyers from Toronto and Vancouver are bringing demand with them.
The Fox Marin Perspective
Mid-year 2026 looks like an inflection point in slow motion. The market isn’t roaring back, and frankly, a roaring comeback wouldn’t be healthy.
What the data shows instead is a rebalancing: demand quietly rebuilding for six straight months, supply tightening, and the deepest correction (condos) beginning to attract the value buyers who typically mark a cycle’s turn.
The timeless lesson in this month’s numbers is that Toronto is never one market. It’s C01, C02, and E01; it’s the building on one corner versus the building across the street. Averages tell you where the tide is; your outcome depends on the specific water you’re swimming in. That’s as true in a recovery as it was in the downturn, and it’s why granular, boots-on-the-ground expertise matters more than headlines and the feat they invoke.
If you’re weighing a purchase, a sale, or a portfolio repositioning this fall, we’d be happy to walk you through what the data means for your specific street, building, and situation. Get in touch with our team, no pressure, just a clear-eyed conversation about your options.
Stay Ahead of the Market
Looking for more Toronto real estate insights, leasing advice, and market updates from the Fox Marin team? Explore the latest blogs and podcasts episodes for in-depth analysis, neighbourhood insights, and conversations about where the market is headed next:
Fox Marin continues to be one of Toronto’s most recognized downtown real estate teams, with more than 500 five-star Google reviews, over 1,000 successful transactions, and more than $580 million in sales volume. (*Source: Jan. 1, 2018 – Sept 1, 2025, RE Stats Inc. & Exclusive)
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This article was written by Ralph Fox, Broker of Record and Managing Partner here at Fox Marin Associates. Ralph is a Torontonian native who recognized from an early age that the most successful people in life apply long-term thinking to their investments, relationships, and life goals. It’s this philosophy, along with his lifelong entrepreneurial drive and exceptional business instincts, that help to establish Ralph as a top agent in the real estate market in downtown Toronto.
Ralph Fox & Kori Marin
Kori and Ralph's love affair with Toronto Real Estate have spanned several decades! It is incredible to see how far their mad crazy passion for design, architecture and innovation has taken them, which is only the beginning of their bigger vision and relentless goal-setting! Kori and Ralph have created this forum for their readers to explore the good, the bad, and the sometimes ugly real estate. An honest perspective about the ins & outs of the business - one in which they live, work and experience first hand every day. Nothing is more interesting than the "real" in real estate!
